Reflections on Gold as We Approach 2026
I started writing this blog in 2020 to share my views on macroeconomics and long-cycle investing. My very first piece was a strong call on gold. At the time, I argued that gold was likely to be one of the best investment opportunities of the coming decade. The framework was admittedly abstract: deeply negative real…
Thoughts on 2026
Over the past week, the incoming U.S. macro data largely confirmed a continuation of the existing slowdown narrative rather than a meaningful inflection. Backfilled BLS data showed October nonfarm payrolls down 105k, followed by a 64k rebound in November, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest level since 2021. We also saw underperformance…
Dovish Fed and What’s Going on with Liquidity?
In the week just past, the most relevant macro event came in the form of the FOMC decision to cut policy rates by 25 basis points, widely characterized as a “hawkish cut,” accompanied by an unchanged dot plot implying only one additional cut in 2026. However, the market largely discounted the dots, viewing them as…
What Could Push 10-Year Yields Higher from Here
Employment is back in the driver’s seat—and inflation has been politely asked to move to the back. This week’s market narrative is a familiar one, but with a few important twists: labor data continues to soften just enough to keep the Fed on an easing path, and inflation remains well-behaved enough to stay out of…
Bad Jobs, Bad Spending, Great Rallies
soft labor data, weak consumption, and subdued inflation In the week just passed, without question, the most interesting developments and market relevant ones came from the economic data. First, we had the weekly ADP series, which showed the four week moving average at negative 13.5 thousand jobs. That marked the lowest since August. And given…
A Wider Path to A December Cut
This week, with the futures market was pricing in just a 25% probability of a December rate cut on Wednesday and equity market dropped 4.6% intraday, we finally got some official data release come in to process on the employment side. Mixed September Job The form of the September nonfarm payroll payrolls print, which increased…
2023, A Year To Be Defined by Range Trades
It has been a while since my last post. However, given the significant data releases that we have witnessed this year so far, including the impressive nonfarm payrolls report, slightly higher than expected inflation data, a rebound in services ISM and the solid retail sales, it is prudent to pause and provide an updated view…
Eye A Bottom, Volatile Months Ahead
In the week just passed, the financial markets received a lot of new fundamental information from which to derive a sustainable trading direction. We saw the FOMC decision to increase policy rates by 75 basis points, which was largely in line with consensus. We also heard from Powell at the press conference that the Fed…
Optimistic Equity vs. Inverted Yield Curve
In the week just past, the Treasury market sold off in a rather dramatic fashion and we saw a couple key benchmark curves invert along with the significant flattening. The week also saw an impressive market reaction to Powell’s Monday morning speech in which he more resolutely laid out the case for a 50 basis…
Inflation Expectations Anchored, for Now
In the week just past, the treasury market went through a meaningful round of consolidation in so far as after 10-year yields backed up to roughly 180. I won’t go that far to interpret the slight bullish drift as any broader tone shift, other than simply to acknowledge that bearish repricing have a tendency to…
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All About Macros 